Domestic equity market benchmarks BSE Sensex and NSE Nifty rallied over 70 per cent in the financial year 2020-21, despite uncertainties due to COVID-19-led disruptions. The 30-share Sensex zoomed 68 per cent while the Nifty 50 index soared 71 per cent on strong foreign portfolio investment inflows. In absolute terms, Sensex gained over 20,000 points and Nifty 6,100 points. During the year, the total market capitalisation of BSE-listed companies grew a massive Rs 90.82 lakh crore to reach Rs 204.30 lakh crore. Similarly, the broader market indices BSE MidCap and SmallCap rallied 91 per cent and 115 per cent, respectively.
If Nifty 50 crosses 14,950, it may hit 15,500 in Apr-Jun 2021, charts show
The share market is currently trading at a crucial point. It is resisting at higher levels where 14,950 is an important level to get past for the overall uptrend to resume, said Manish Hathiramani, proprietary index trader and technical analyst, Deen Dayal Investments. On the downside, there is support around the levels of 14,050-14,100. Nifty 50 is currently closer to the upper end of this range which is between 14,100-14,900, Hathiramani told Financial Express Online. “What needs to be seen is which side is crossed first. If we can get past 14,950, the index should be able to achieve 15,500. If it breaks 14,100, we can slide to 13,600-13,700,” he added.
Nifty 50 resistance at 15,430
The market is currently undergoing a time-wise correction, and this phase is likely to continue for some more time, according to analysts. “We don’t see Nifty going beyond record highs of 15,400 in the near future. The market will take some time before it breaks this level and heads towards 16,000 and beyond,” Sameet Chavan, Chief Technical Analyst, Angel Broking, told Financial Express Online. “The broader range at the start of the first quarter would be 15,000-15,400 on the higher side and 14,200-13,800 on the lower side,” Chavan added.
The coming quarter is likely to see Nifty continuing to consolidate in a broad but defined range, said Milan Vaishnav, CMT, MSTA, Consulting Technical Analyst and founder, Gemstone Equity Research & Advisory Services. The zone of 14,050-14,200 represents a strong support for the markets, Milan Vaishnav said. As long as NIFTY stays above this zone, it will keep its primary uptrend intact, he added. On the higher side, the Nifty has a resistance at 15,430, if that is taken out, then the revised high points near 15,600-15,700 cannot be ruled out. “The index is mildly overbought on the quarterly chart but the setup remains strong above the 14,050-14,200 zone for the index in the coming quarter,” Milan Vaishnav said.
Corporate earnings on investors’ radar in new fiscal
In the first quarter of the new fiscal, companies will start announcing the corporate earnings for Jan-March 2021. While rising COVID-19 cases will continue to keep investors on tenterhooks. “The upcoming earnings season would dictate the trend for the markets,” said Ajit Mishra, VP- Senior Technical Analyst, Religare Broking. He added that the expectations are rife for a strong earnings season led by healthy demand recovery and low base effect. “Further, global markets have also witnessed renewed buying interest on the back of the stimulus package announced in the US,” Mishra told Financial Express Online.
“We expect the positive bias to continue for the markets however rising COVID cases would remain a concern as any imposition of restrictions would impact on-going economic recovery. On the global front, a rise in bond yields could also impact emerging markets like India,” Mishra added.
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